Arun Ram
In politics, said 19th century French political philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville, shared hatreds are almost always the basis of friendships. In the AIADMK, it is also the shared fear of loss.
The ruling party’s general council on Saturday endorsed Edappadi K Palaniswami as its chief minister candidate and authorised him and deputy chief minister O Panneerselvam to decide on poll strategies, alliances and seat sharing “to ensure a resounding victory”. No surprises, as there was no other way the party could go.
The party had, on October 7, chosen EPS for the top post and agreed to OPS’s demand for an 11-member steering committee. As per the party bylaws, OPS should be a joint signatory with EPS on crucial decisions including seat-sharing and candidate selection, or they wouldn’t get the election commission’s approval. For now, they have to be more than friends; they should be like a really small gang.
This functional unity will remain the cornerstone of the party’s electoral prospects. If it remains intact, the AIADMK has a fighting chance; if it cracks, forget the dream of “a resounding victory”, the very continuance of the AIADMK in its present form may be at stake. In this electoral battle, the DMK, which has been out of power for close to 10 years, has its single focus on defeating the AIADMK. The ruling party, meanwhile, has, besides taking on its prime rival, two sides to watch — its internal dissidence and possible challenges V K Sasikala can pose once out of prison.
The first big challenge will begin – if it hasn’t already – when the AIADMK brass sit together to choose the candidates. Both EPS and OPS would want to have more of their respective supporters to contest, keeping in mind the post-poll scenario. Despite OPS being the coordinator, joint coordinator EPS, who enjoys wider support in the party forums, will have a bigger say. It is here the two will have to give and take (OPS may have to give more and take less), considering each one’s strengths and the certain disaster a falling out can invite.
The best way would be to draw up a longlist and soon a shortlist of nominees for each constituency and let an external agency (the party has a consultant) do a fairly objective analysis to select the one with the highest chances of winning. For this, again, the two leaders have to agree. EPS may find this to his advantage, as the list of nominees is likely to be populated by people who have been either his supporters or neo-converts owing to his renewed predominance in the party and the government in the past couple of years. OPS will have to be realistic and get the best he can from a technically fair selection process.
Less tangible is the situation arising out of Sasikala’s release from prison, which is expected on January 27. So far, employing fear and favour, the AIADMK has been able to keep its flock together; it even got some ministers to say Sasikala will have nothing to do with the party. But once she walks out of the gates of Parappana Agrahara as a person with resources, but one who cannot contest an election or hold a public office for six more years, Sasikala may be politically tempting for some. If nothing else, a mildly resurgent AMMK can prove more than an irritant for the AIADMK.
The AIADMK has to meet these two challenges internally to be ready for the ultimate battle with the DMK-led front. And, for that, cohesion holds the key. They may not share much love, but EPS and OPS should remember they share enough fears and hatreds to remain friends in mutual need.
Courtesy - TOI
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